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The fourth quarter steel demand don't reduce uncertainty steel price fluctuations increase北京赛车pk10本领
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作者:河北友发钢管 滥觞:河北友发钢管 点击数: 更新工夫:2012年06月22 【字体: 】 新葡亰代办署理开户平台

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Recently, in dalian and Qingdao were held two and steel the heavyweight meeting--about China's steel and China international conference on raw materials (international) capital supply and demand situation steel peak BBS. The parties to the comprehensive analysis, the fourth quarter of the year, steel the day of the enterprise is not pessimistic, but the steel industry want to have a warm winter is not easy.
Uncertainty will still steel price fluctuations could increase

This year the domestic steel prices since it "has been in fitful decline". January-February market overall smoothly, entering march, downstream demand recover gradually, export increase, the domestic market demand start and rise rapidly, drive more steel variety price more than 2009 high in August. Shandong iron and steel group, deputy general manager ChenXiangYang said: "the rising price of steel drive group increased profits, the first five months of this year profit of 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61 billion yuan."
But by the middle of April real estate to the rapid rise in new steel really pours cold water. ChenXiangYang said, real estate prices caused the new steel, dealers are selling, the market fall modestly evolved into a sharp drop in the panic. Falling trend continued until mid-july.

Along with the economic data released half a year and the stock market of buoyancy, late July steel prices began to rise, especially into since September, hebei energy conservation and emission reduction XianChan limiting power caused by steel mill, cause steel price rise quickly. According to information, XianChan after news spreads on September 4, hebei billet market price 200 yuan rose, September 6, endorsement one open quotation, the domestic market price surged to $100-300 yuan.
Since September 8, the rise in steel price momentum again be under pressure. My research department manager who once steel nets section-think, the fall in the energy conservation and emission reduction is XianChan "good" excessive of release of the reason, also have macro data published in August, after a new round of national market to control inflation and real estate market regulation policy expected concerns.

"Recently, iron ore prices in the fourth quarter, the 10% decline in basic sure news, also make the cost price of steel support weakened factors." Once day-say, from which in the long term, the price of steel is still in a rise in the channel, but volatility range will be increased.
The personage inside course of study thinks, the fourth quarter still faces many uncertainties policy factors, the consumer price index and house prices have looked up trend, can't rule out interest rate hikes and more stringent regulation policies in, this is the fourth quarter increased steel price fluctuation of may.
The fourth quarter steel demand is reduced

Real estate needs accounted for about half of China's steel consumption, real estate market boom situation directly related to the price of steel. The national bureau of statistics data display, 1-in August, real estate investment grew by 36.7%, new commenced area accumulative increase 66.1%, this indicates the real estate industry in the second half of the year to steel demand is still strong, four quarters of steel prices have strong support.
Car industry accounted for a bigger slice of the steel demand. In the first half of this year, domestic car output for 8.4722 million volume, sales amount for 718.53, respectively year-on-year growth of 44.37% and 30.45%, the first in the world. Ministry of industry and information company created JiaYinSong inspector is raw material analysis, it by the end of this year, reduce the purchase, car went to the country, to old change new stimulation such as policy or will quit, the possible stimulation consumers buy in advance, is expected to the fourth quarter sales rebounded, will stimulate increased demand for steel.

The international market, especially in developing countries of our country market demand growth in steel. The data shows, the first seven months of the Chinese steel export destinations 205, and South Korea is occupied 20.4%, asean countries account for 18.7% of African countries account for 10.4%. JiaLiangQun said, developing countries to the needs of the steel will continue to grow, and for a time these emerging markets will be the main factor of steel export growth.
Investment in pulling, the state's 4 trillion investment projects with great potential. Since last year, some of the new national approval key development area is the current and future consumption of steel main area. Especially since June new project start speed, will drive the late this year steel demand continue to look good.

In addition, some in the industry think, in China this year by flood disaster area is more, the reconstruction of the second half greater than demand in previous years, especially the post-disaster reconstruction and affordable housing, the demand for steel has played a significant role in boosting.
The steel market continued to have a big bull market

Recently, the hebei to complete the energy and emission reduction goals XianChan, limiting power of steel mill, the market for of steel production is expected to decline. The data shows, hebei province from January to July, accounting for up to 25% of the steel production. My steel nets vice President JiaLiangQun estimates, the power brownouts XianChan will make hebei reduce about 17 million tons of steel production.

In fact, energy conservation and emission reduction intensified efforts have been affecting our country of crude steel production. At present, the crude steel production has an average daily for 3 consecutive months down in August, only 1.666 million tons of level. Have insiders expect, September may be closer to 1.62 million tons, will this year than in late April peak level fell about 13%. ChenXiangYang said, energy conservation and emission reduction intensified efforts will reduce the steel is a supply, 2 it is punitive electricity price will increase steel enterprises cost, promote steel price rise.
Beijing capital of a joint stock limited company futures four quarter futures investment report that steel, as September-October autumn needs little peak arrival, reducing the supply in the expected, steel prices will continue to rise in the current trend rebound. In the second half of the four seasons, November to December, with the peak season away, at the same time limit electricity policy near the end, supply growth will gradually drive steel prices back down.

But this kind of judgment in mid-september steel price since falling situation, is being serious test. My steel nets of comprehensive index has the price of steel by September 7, 177.5 points on 28 September dropped to 169.5 points. Many insiders, the fourth quarter steel day does not optimistic. ChenXiangYang said, the steel industry is still not change the pattern of the excess supply, steel cost four quarter will be higher still, steel enterprise still not out of raw material for a monopoly of the dilemma of the enterprise work. He says that, although the fourth quarter long association iron ore price has dropped, but freight but has risen, offset the iron ore price

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